Layer
CRAM May–Jul 2026 — composite risk
Weighted compound-risk score across all seven CMC indicators
The flagship CMC Compound Risk Assessment Model score — a weighted average of food insecurity, displacement, conflict intensity, conflict proneness, drought, flood, and land productivity, rescaled to 1–5.
CRAM May–Jul 2026
Very Low< 2.44
Low2.44 – 2.85
Moderate2.85 – 3.2
High3.2 – 3.37
Very High≥ 3.37
Data coverage1 May – 31 Jul 2026
Methodology + interpretation
Methodology
Seven indicator weights (operational vector, unchanged since the Feb–Apr 2026 cycle): food insecurity 0.20, conflict intensity 0.20, drought 0.20, flood 0.20, land productivity 0.10, conflict proneness 0.05, displacement 0.05. Each indicator is computed on a 5 km hex grid and aggregated to districts and regions by equal-area overlay.
Reading the scale
Higher = more districts compounding multiple risk factors. Very High (≥ 3.37 on the composite cuts) means several indicators are in severe territory simultaneously.
CMC Somalia CRAM, May–Jul 2026 cycle. © Conflict Management Consulting.
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